Ch. 33 Uninhabitable?

"It is, I promise, worse than you think."

- David Wallace-Wells, 

The Uninhabitable Earth

Will the Earth become uninhabitable to humans?

The short answer is... maybe. Maybe, even probably.

If our planet is too warm, it will set off a series of feedback loops which could very well push us to a tipping point from which we can't recover. 

The good news is that there are solutions, and we do still have time to reverse global warming.

You might be tempted to skip these next few chapters and go straight to those solutions. But I implore you to take the time to ingest these facts and come to grips with the real dangers; just what a rapidly changing climate poses for future generations and the continued existence of the human race. 

Much of the following information comes from an article (and book) written by David Wallace-Wells, entitled The Uninhabitable Earth. The article is not a particularly long read and can easily be found online. Both article and book are highly recommended reading. 

For now, we are about to talk about the Bad Stuff, the Really Bad Stuff, and the Horrific Stuff. 

The Bad Stuff will impact individuals in certain parts of the world. The warmer it gets, the more people and more parts of the world will be effected.

The Really Bad Stuff will impact large groups of people and have far ranging implications.

The Horrific Stuff will impact everyone, everywhere. 

The Bad Stuff

The fact that we are already passing 1.5 degrees of warming ensures that we are going to experience a lot of bad stuff. Here is a short, but incomplete list of that stuff. 

Heat death-  The human body is designed to survive hot temperatures. Nature made us bipedal to reduce energy consumption and therefore heat production. We have less body hair and sweat glands which allow us to cool off through the evaporation of moisture. Yes, humans can survive some extremes like the South Pole or the middle of an arid desert, but it takes appropriate shelter and supplies. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat without proper shelter and supplies can result in death. 

Wet Bulb Temperatures-  A wet bulb measures the temperature read by a thermometer covered in a wet cloth. As water evaporates from the cloth, evaporation cools the thermometer. This becomes important to humans when humidity becomes higher. If humidity is 100%, and temperatures reach between 88 and 95 degrees, the human body can no longer cool itself. The body is unable to survive for more than about 6 hours in these conditions. 

Air- Carbon dioxide is increasing in the atmosphere. More carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means less oxygen. Current projections have us being at a 1000 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere by the year 2100 (Kiehl, 2019). This is critical because the air becomes unsafe to breathe, particularly in areas of congestion and industry. Interestingly, our cognitive capacities as humans decline by 21% when we reach the 1000 ppm threshold (Kiehl, 2019).

The Really Bad Stuff

“Natural” Disasters- We’ve already seen an increase in disasters. Wildfire season alone has been getting steadily longer (Census.gov, 2023). The more trees that burn in wildfire season, the more smoke pollution will be produced. This is already killing 340,000 people per year from smoke inhalation (Census.gov, 2023). 

Storms are going to get worse, which in turn will lead to more and greater flooding. It’s easy to dismiss severe storms on paper, but in reality it will be worse than most people can imagine. Think Monsoon season, where storms can level cities and blackout the sun for days at a time, only not confined to one part of the year. Unless we can reverse the effects of climate change, get ready for a whole lot more of these “natural” disasters.

Our atmosphere is soaking up more moisture because of the increase in greenhouse gases. This cascades into new problems in the form of heavy floods, driven by more numerous and destructive storms. A recent study predicted potential flooding so bad it could wipe Los Angeles off the map (Rice, 2022). 

Sea Level Rise - One of the most obvious and often discussed aspects of global warming is sea level rise. As the Earth warms, ice in the Arctic, Antarctic, and glaciers all begin to melt. The sea level is projected to rise upwards of a foot in the next 30 years (Lindsey, 2023). It might not seem like a big deal to most people. After all, maybe some rich guy’s beach house will get wet on high tide day, so what?

The one-foot rise is based on a two degree increase in temperature. But we could be looking at four more degrees in the next 78 years. Then there’s the fact that some things about the projection model aren’t being taken into account. The ice shelves in Antarctica are one example. These enormous ice structures on the western and eastern sides of the continent present the potential for far greater sea level rise than previously accounted for.

In Antarctica, there’s a glacier known as the Thwaites, but it goes by another, more ominous name: The Doomsday Glacier. The glacier is holding back massive sheets of ice on the land. If the Thwaites melts enough and gives way, all of that ice will eventually slide into the water. This will result in a ten-foot rise in sea levels globally (Grunes, 2023). This is quite a bit different than a rich guy getting wet carpet at his beach house.

The Doomsday Glacier is on the Western side of Antarctica, but the Eastern side could be in danger too. If the temperature continues to increase beyond a certain threshold, then the eastern shelves will melt away as well. That would create a 170-foot rise in sea levels. The danger is not as immediate as with the Thwaites glacier, but it’s still a concern long term.

More than half the world’s population lives within 65 miles of the ocean (Census.gov, 2023). If we experience a 10-foot rise in sea level, 4 billion people will be displaced. Delta regions like those on the Mississippi or Ganges are very fertile and produce half of all locally grown food. A ten-foot rise would drown these breadbaskets and potentially lead to starvation.

Water - Speaking of Antarctica, more than 90% of the world’s freshwater is located there (National Science Foundation, 2017). If the temperatures rise four degrees, that freshwater is going to melt into the ocean and become undrinkable. Some of the ice shelves in Antarctica are the size of France. They’re hundreds of meters thick, and they’re melting and getting weaker every day. Melting isn’t only happening from the outside, but from the inside as well.

Water is arguably the most pressing concern we have. Rivers, lakes, and reservoirs are drying up. Federal agencies have increasingly implemented water rationing in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Phoenix recently put into place an ordinance that no new housing developments can be built unless they can provide their own water for the next century.

The Colorado River has been over promised (Powell, 2023). This means that there are seven states who have more water rights than there is actual water to go around. 

While we do have a large reserve of underground water in the form of aquifers, these are not inexhaustible. To make matters worse, fracking and other fossil fuel extraction processes are contaminating our potable ground water supplies (Powell, 2023). This is only going to exacerbate the problem as we won’t have any backup water supplies.

In addition, we're looking at massive numbers of climate refugees by the end of the century, as well as food shortages. 

Refugees - If and when climate change causes sea level rise of at least ten feet, there will be billions of refugees who have to find somewhere else to live. During the Syrian conflict’s height, there were about a million refugees flooding into Europe (Connor, 2018). The destabilizing impact on Europe was felt across the continent, and that was only for one million refugees. 

By contrast, the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) predictions have potentially hundreds of millions of refugees by 2050, all because of sea level rise (NOAA, 2023). Imagine the impact across the globe as these refugees have to be locate elsewhere.

Food Shortages - Losing our river deltas due to sea level rise would be devastating to our food supply. You might be thinking that the Midwest, the breadbasket of the nation, is too far from the coasts to be affected. It’s true that rising sea levels won’t directly affect the Midwest. However, the Midwest will be affected by temperature changes. 

On the average, for every degree of warming we experience, there is a 10% decrease in crop yields (Ray, 2019). If the global temperatures warm up just two degrees over the next few decades, then we’re looking at a 20% loss in crop yields. Adding to the food shortage problem are increased droughts, lack of fresh water, and desertification. 

What all of this means is that the conditions will be ripe for another dust bowl, just like America experienced in the 1930s. 

One way we can help prevent this desertification is to abandon industrial farming. While some might see modern farming techniques as a possible solution to the problems presented by climate change, the truth is those very same techniques are a big part of the problem. 

Modern farming practices deplete the soil of nutrients and kill off insect, bird, and mammal populations. Soil contains ¼ of all biodiversity in the form of billions of beneficial microscopic organisms (Whalley, 2023). It’s estimated we lose 24 billion tons of topsoil per year due to modern farming techniques.

Pesticides kill an estimated 2.5% of insect biomass per year (Whalley, 2023), and we run the risk of losing all of our insect population by 2100. Insects are often overlooked, but a critical part of a healthy ecosystem. We’ve also lost an average of 60% of all birds, fish, mammal, amphibian, and reptile populations. All thanks to pesticide (Whalley, 2023).

Remember that the use of nitrogen fertilizers, produces nitrous oxide, which stays in the atmosphere for 121 years, and is a greenhouse gas 300 times more potent than CO2.

Disease - Global warming means that tropical diseases like Dengue Fever and Malaria will be able to make their way further north. The diseases will migrate with the mosquitoes, who will be able to live further north because of the warmer temperatures. We’ve already seen this happening in Florida. 

What could be much worse, is the fact that we have no idea what kinds of prehistoric plagues and diseases are locked in the permafrost. Permafrost has been around for longer than humans have walked the Earth. There’s zero chance of any kind of resistance to some of the pathogens contained within.

If you thought Covid had a massive impact, imagine what would happen if one of these ancient, primordial diseases were to work its way through the general population. It could be a hard to transmit but highly lethal virus like Ebola, or something less lethal but far more insidious and infectious like Covid-19. In any event, humanity will be ill prepared to deal with it.

Wars - As we’ve seen from the example in Darfur, climate change has and will continue to incite warfare. People will fight over whatever livable land is left, as well as for resources. Many of our wars have been about resources such as oil and energy. There have been some religious based wars, like the Crusades, but the future wars will likely be over our slowly dwindling resources. 

When water, food and other resources necessary for survival become scarce, we will fight over what is left. 

Economic Collapse - Earlier, we talked about how the Dow is so fragile it will drop 500 points because of a irresponsible tweet by Donald Trump. Now imagine 300 million refugees, food shortages, water scarcity, and power outages. This is going to create real instability, and if there’s one thing the stock market can’t take, it’s a little instability.

"A 3C (37.4F) temperature increase will cause 'precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100'... This economic loss is so severe that it is 'comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war domestically and permanently'” (Milman, 2024)

We realistically could be looking at the potential for a total economic collapse on a global scale. Our economy will become based on strength, with warlords vying for power. Paper money will lose its value, and the true currency will be food, water, shelter, and habitable land on which to live.

And that's just the "really bad stuff."

The Horrific Stuff

We have to remember that the Earth is known as "the water planet" because 71% of the surface is covered by water. The oceans contain over 96% of that water. 

Water is the stuff of life. Water regulates the temperature of the Earth as well as the temperature of the human body. Without water, there is no life.  

A Dead Ocean - It's this simple. A dead ocean means a dead planet. 

As the planet warms, the oceans warm. Warmer water holds less oxygen. Ocean life requires oxygen, just as life on land. "When the oxygen levels go down, dead zones will expand. These are areas of the ocean where the water quality is too poor to sustain life. Pollution will only add to the devastation unless we stop it." - Katie Pavid, Will the ocean really be dead in 50 years?  

Studies find that marine animals could die at levels rivaling the biggest mass extinctions in history if seas become too warm and hold too little oxygen. (Bush, 2022)

To be clear, we're not just talking about the death of ocean life. We are talking about the death of all life on Earth. Most people tend to think of trees when it comes to sequestering carbon. Trees breathe in carbon dioxide, and breathe out oxygen, so naturally we do need trees. (Trees that we are losing in record numbers due to deforestation and increasing wildfires.) But the truth is that trees only account for a small percentage of the oxygen we breathe. The oceans provide most of our oxygen, and also scrub the majority of CO2 from the atmosphere.

Oceans scrub nearly 50% of the CO2 from our air, and without oceans, the world would be a lot hotter. We would increase the heat by more than 30% every year (Grunes, 2023). A dead ocean would turbo charge the effects of global warming

Now, it's true that a few dead zones in the ocean does not mean a "dead ocean." But when we take into account cascading effects and feedback loops, we can see the tenuous state of ocean life. 

With the increases in greenhouse gasses, our oceans are being forced to absorb more CO2 than at any point in their history. The oceans are becoming acidified (NOAA, 2021). 

A Poison Ocean - The increased CO2 and acidification of the ocean creates dead zones. Smaller fish die out, unable to breathe, which causes oxygen-eating bacteria to thrive. Those same bacteria that destroy oxygen also produce hydrogen sulfide. The higher levels of hydrogen sulfide in the water will unbalance the ocean’s ecosystem and lead to even more die-offs.

So far, there are five extinction-level events that have occurred on Earth that we know of. The Permian and Triassic events both involved the release of massive amounts of hydrogen sulfide into the world’s oceans (Ritchie, 2023). The ocean literally shuts down, the currents ending. More than 97% of all life on Earth vanished during these events. It took millions of years for life on this planet to regenerate.

A feedback loop that leads to a massive increase of hydrogen sulfide in the oceans is probably the biggest danger to life on this planet. 

Cascading Effects, Feedback Loops and Tipping Points

Cascading Effects - "A sequence of events in which each produces the circumstances necessary for the initiation of the next." (oxford reference.com)

In the introduction to Part 4: Ecology, there was a quote from Chief Seattle that said, "Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things are connected." This is not a flowery platitude, this is reality. 

Everything is connected. Nothing happens in "the web of life" that does not impact every other part of the web. 

Example: Salmon populations have been dwindling for decades, but it's not just about the salmon. This impacts the eagles, mink, otter and bears that rely on the salmon as a major food source. It impacts indigenous people who have been harvesting the same fishing grounds for centuries. 

Every adverse effect of global warming in turn causes another adverse effect, which in turn causes another, and so on. 

Carbon in the atmosphere leads to acidifying the oceans, which causes coral to die, which causes fish to die, which causes food shortages, which causes conflict like those in Darfur. 

It just keeps on going. And yes. It will come to your doorstep, sooner than you think. 

There’s no such thing as a separate environment. We’re all living in the same environment. Even if it’s not felt right away in some areas, the effects will eventually catch up to everyone. 

Small fish in the ocean tend to feed off of oxygen-feeding bacteria. As CO2 increases and oceans acidify, these small fish populations suffocate and die. Without fish to keep their population down the bacteria overpopulate and devour more oxygen, exacerbating the problems. This is known as a feedback loop.

Feedback Loops

"In the climate system, a feedback is a process that can work as part of a loop to either lessen or add to the effects of a change in one part of the system." (scied.ucar.edu) 

It’s time to get to the really bad news: Feedback loops. 

If things continue the way they are going, then some really bad things are possible. 

Our polar icecaps, for example, are truly massive. They reflect heat from the sun back out into space. Some of it is absorbed, and it stays trapped in the atmosphere. As our ice caps melt, our reflectors get smaller and smaller, and therefore send less heat back into space. This means that heat stays right here in our atmosphere. Dark land or water is revealed under the ice, which then absorbs more heat and causes higher temperatures, therefore melting more ice. Just like with the fish and the oxygen-eating bacteria, this is a feedback loop.

Another feedback loop is our melting permafrost. It’s keeping a lot of methane trapped and out of our atmosphere. Remember that methane is 28 times more potent than CO2 as a greenhouse gas. As the permafrost melts, more methane is released, which in turn raises the temperature, which melts more permafrost.

What we are trying to do is maintain homeostasis, and keep our ecology in balance. 

But once unbalance starts to happen, it tends to snowball until it’s radically out of balance. Global warming can literally spin out of control once too many feedback loops start in earnest. This would lead to a tipping point from which there is no recovery. 

Tipping Point 

"The critical point in a situation, process, or system beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place." (Merriam-webster.com)  

Put simply, the cascading effects of global warming are leading to feedback loops. We’re running out of time to address feedback loops. They are not just a possibility, they are happening right now.

If we don’t do something to change it, if we don’t stop these feedback loops, we’re looking at worse-case scenarios made real. Unbreathable air, 170-foot sea level rises, and unlivable temperatures. Hydrogen sulfide so high that it kills off all ocean life and poisons the air. It would take millions of years for the Earth to recover.

This is not fear mongering, or hyperbole. It is a distinct possibility based on verifiable evidence and observable facts.

The good news is, we can still take action to stop these feedback loops. 

But we must acknowledge that what is described in this chapter is not fantasy. It is in fact already happening.